Brent Crude To Average $50 in 2021

Brent crude, the world’s largest oil price benchmark, is likely to hit an average of nearly $ 50 a barrel this year as countries face the logistical challenge of deploying the vaccines necessary to quell the COVID-19 pandemic. as reported by the Intelligence’s annual Global Petroleum Survey of over 1,000 industry players.

In a poll conducted yesterday the same day in Asia, the Middle East, Africa, Europe and the US, 48% of respondents identified $ 50 as the most likely outcome for Brent this year, while more than a third of those polled , 37%, were slightly more optimistic about their prospects for an economic recovery, seeing that oil will soar to an average of $ 60 a barrel in 2021.

The early stages of vaccination efforts in Europe and the US were geared towards bringing the people at greatest risk to the top. However, the pace of vaccination has stalled due to the small number of vaccination centers available. the currently approved narrow population. and other logistical challenges. Brent crude averaged $ 42 a barrel in 2020 after OPEC + cut supply by about 10 million barrels a day.

“depend on the vaccine rollout. There are plans in many countries to vaccinate a good percentage of the people by the first quarter. If that happens and we see a demand recovery, then I think the market can absorb more”

Suhail al-Mazrouei, UAE Minister of Energy & Infrastructure

“We are focused on returning this market to stability, which had alluded us for most of 2020 to the detriment of not only we producers but also consumers, and by extension the global economy”

General Mohammad Barkindo, OPEC Secretary

IEA Lowers Forecast in December

In December, the International Energy Agency lowered its forecast for global oil demand growth for 2021 to 5.7 million barrels a day after new roadblocks and travel restrictions were put in place in Europe and the US, hoping they will stay wide until Covid-19 vaccines are common. .

For much of the second half of 2020, oil prices were in a battle between the glass’s half-full mood and the glass’s half-empty reality, which swung both ways week after week and stalled around $ 40 a barrel for many Months. The bullish outlook that came with the announcement of a range of vaccines towards the end of 2020 caused oil markets to explode, rising to $ 50. Brent crude oil futures are trading above $ 55 a barrel in Asia this morning, while the US benchmark West Texas Intermediate is above $ 52 a barrel.

OPEC General Secretary Mohammad Barkindo quote above to Gulf Intelligence.

Gulf Intelligence’s Global Petroleum Survey 2021, conducted in January each year to take the pulse of those charged with managing the international energy industry, found that only a small number, 7%, see the risk of prices falling. back to $ 40, while 7% bullishly is forecasting $ 70 this year.

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