Here are the Key Points from IEA’s Oil Market Report – May 2023

– World oil demand forecasted to rise by 2.2 mb/d year-on-year in 2023 to an average of 102 mb/d.
– China’s demand recovery surpasses expectations, setting a record in March at 16 mb/d.
– OECD’s average increase in demand in 2023 is 350 kb/d, compared to 1.9 mb/d in non-OECD countries.
– Iraq, Nigeria, and Brazil see significant outages in oil supply partially offset by increases elsewhere.
– Global oil supply declined by 230 kb/d to 101.1 mb/d in April led by outages in Iraq, Nigeria, and Brazil.
– OPEC+ oil supply is set to fall by 850 kb/d from April through December while non-OPEC+ supply rises by 710 kb/d.
– Global crude throughputs are estimated to reach 82.3 mb/d in 2023 after record runs in Asia.
– Russian oil exports of crude and refined oil products reached a post-invasion high of 8.3 mb/d in April.
– Global observed oil inventories declined by 7.9 mb in March, with a sharp draw in products and OECD industry stocks at a six-month low.
– North Sea Dated crude rose by $10/bbl to $88.09/bbl in mid-April but fell in early May due to concerns about global economic growth and oil demand prospects.
– World oil demand growth is forecasted to be 2.2 mb/d in 2023 with China accounting for nearly 60% of global growth.
– Heavy losses from Iraq’s northern Kurdish region, wildfire disruptions in Canada, and protest-related cuts in Nigeria impact oil supply.
– Initial data for April shows a rise in on-land product stocks that may mitigate price volatility in the coming months if supply falls short of expected demand.
– OPEC+ crude oil production declines in April, with OPEC-10 supply down by 1.23 mb/d and total non-OPEC supply down by 1.27 mb/d.

Key Takeaway:

The Oil Market Report from IEA for May 2023 forecasts a rise in global oil demand, driven primarily by China’s recovery and non-OECD gains, while significant outages in Iraq, Nigeria, and Brazil contribute to declines in global oil supply. Despite record global crude throughputs, weak margins result in a downgrade on upcoming forecast crude runs. Russian oil exports have increased to a post-invasion high despite a partial cut in supply while worries persist about the global economic outlook and oil demand as prices continue to fluctuate.

You can find the full report at https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-may-2023